Assessment of Future Land Use/Land Cover Scenarios on the Hydrology of a Coastal Basin in South-Central Chile

Land use and land cover (LULC) change is one of the clearest representations global environmental phenomenon at various spatial temporal scales. Chile worldwide recognized to have areas dedicated non-native forest plantations that specifically in coastal range show high economic deterioration, questioning sustainability forestry industry. Currently, there are no studies reveal real effects LULC on water balance basin or sub-basin scales associated with future scenarios, which might contribute territorial decision-making magnitude these dynamics. In this study, order study dynamics a South-Central Chile, we assessed analyzed scenarios hydrological processes by generating synthetic maps from Landsat (Landsat 5 TM 8 OLI) image datasets. The model Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was calibrated validated, using hydroclimatic time series, simulate discharges other components over those scenarios. were projected combined Markov chain analysis (CA–Markov) cellular automata algorithms for near (2025), middle (2035) far (2045) future. results revealed different not as significant except soil transfer percolation (increase 72.4%) groundwater flow 72.5%). This trend especially observed sub-basins dominated year 2035, an increase 43.6% flows resulted increased aquifer recharge storage, mainly offset decrease 27% evapotranspiration. work demonstrates importance evaluating impacts response basin, also how governance policy closely linked resources.